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The Flat Curve Society — mattwood.fyi

The Flat Curve Society

I am now in the camp who believe that we are only at most two or three model generations away from AI finally being controlled like nuclear weapons. Only a few will have access to superintelligence above the classes of models we're seeing this year.

steve-yegge.medium.com →

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Challenges

A Rational Conversation on Where AI Is Actually Going | Benedict Evans on Lenny's Podcast Claiming transformative AGI-level AI is only 2-3 generations away contradicts Evans' framing of the current era as one of radical, prolonged uncertainty.

Challenged by

Aaron Levie: AI Psychosis and the Last Mile of Agent Work Levie's emphasis on persistent 'last mile' agent failures undercuts the optimism that fully capable AI is only a few model generations away.
How One Tech Company Created 13 New Types of Jobs Because of A.I. Documented creation of 13 new job categories at a single company directly contradicts the stagnation thesis proposed by the Flat Curve Society.
Agent Swarms and the New Model Economics High per-run costs of agent swarms complicate the optimistic claim that transformative, near-AGI capability is imminent and economically viable.

Supported by

Sir Clive Sinclair: Tireless Inventor Ahead of His Time Sinclair's inventions arriving before consumers or infrastructure were ready illustrates the 'flat curve' pattern of innovation outpacing adoption.
Ethan Mollick: Meaningfully Better AI Releases Are Accelerating Mollick's observation that model releases are meaningfully accelerating bolsters the 'Flat Curve Society' claim that transformative AI is near.

Mario meets Pareto The Flat Curve Society likely explores tradeoffs and suboptimal equilibria in systems, paralleling the Pareto frontier concept of identifying dominant vs. dominated configurations among competing statistics

Type:	link
First published:	Friday, 19 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC
Location:	https://steve-yegge.medium.com/the-flat-curve-society-36c8b01eb33b
URL:	https://mattwood.fyi/i/ac3ef182

I'm Matt Wood, and this is For Your Information. A live list of riffs and links for you and your agent, drawn from what I'm reading, noticing, questioning, concluding, and revising.

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